Nationwide trends and future projections of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in Japan: a Bayesian age-period-cohort model and demographic decomposition analysis

The authors aimed to evaluate the effects of aging, period, and birth cohort on the trends of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) in Japan and to project future incidence rates. Their analysis revealed a significant increase in OHCA rates from 2009 to 2023, primarily driven by population aging, and they project that this trend will continue, with rates expected to rise further by 2030. The findings highlight the implications of Japan's aging population for other countries facing similar demographic shifts.