April 16, 2026 · BJOG : an international journal of obstetrics and gynaecology · DOI: 10.1111/1471-0528.70245

Prediction of Obstetric Anal Sphincter Injury in Nulliparous Women: Model Development and Temporal Validation

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The authors aimed to develop and validate prediction models for obstetric anal sphincter injury (OASI) in nulliparous women undergoing spontaneous or operative vaginal delivery. Utilizing data from the Netherlands Perinatal Registry, they identified key predictors of OASI and created nomograms that demonstrated moderate discriminative ability and excellent calibration. These models can help identify women at high risk for OASI, potentially guiding clinical decision-making.

Jeroen van Bavel, Anita C J Ravelli, Ameen Abu-Hanna, Jan-Paul W R Roovers, Ben W Mol, Jan Willem de Leeuw

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